RICHMOND, Va. – Every office has one. The well-meaning decision-maker who skips the data, bypasses the reports and declares, “I just have a feeling about this.”
Spoiler alert: That’s not insight. That’s a hunch in a trench coat.
At Defense Logistics Agency Aviation, where every procured part impacts warfighter readiness, decisions can’t be left to gut instinct. This isn’t a guessing game – it’s a high-stakes operation that depends on getting it right, not just feeling right.
The difference? Data acumen.
Supply Chain Analyst Thomas Wright knows precisely what can go wrong when assumptions take the wheel.
“It was assumed the forecast requirements from the customer were accurate,” Wright said. “When we completed a comparison analysis using historic versus forecasted data, it revealed that customer requirement data provided to us was only about 70% accurate.”
The kicker? That 30% discrepancy could have cost money and resources if left unchecked. But instead of accepting the flawed input, Wright’s team accounted for it. They built in variance buffers and adjusted planning models accordingly.
The lesson: Even flawed data can work for you – if you know it’s flawed.
According to DLA’s training modules, there’s a six-step process that can help you escape the “gut-feeling vortex”:
1. Define the problem
2. Gather relevant data
3. Formulate a hypothesis
4. Test the hypothesis
5. Interpret the results
6. Repeat as needed
This isn’t just a business framework – it’s decision-making with a flashlight.
Intuition isn’t just inaccurate – it’s also sneaky. Supply Chain Analyst Francisco Bermudez pointed out the silent saboteur behind most gut calls: unconscious bias.
“Intuition-based decisions can be influenced by unconscious biases, potentially leading to misinterpretations of facts,” Bermudez said. “In contrast, a structured, data-driven approach relies solely on verified evidence.”
But even the best data won’t save a decision if no one’s talking.
“Without clear communication, even a data-driven approach can lead to unnecessary debates among team members,” he added. “Potentially causing frustration and resentment.”
Translation: If the clue is buried in a spreadsheet and no one talks about it, it’s as good as lost.
According to the Data Acumen – Procurement guidance from Carl Allen, deputy director of Procurement Process Support, the document makes it clear: data isn’t optional in Aviation’s acquisition world. It’s the flashlight every contract specialist carries.
Need to decide whether a contractor’s price is fair? You’ll need past pricing data, quote comparisons and inflation impacts, not vibes.
Want to issue a delivery extension modification? Ask:
• Why is the extension needed?
• Is there an emerging problem?
• Will the contractor even deliver?
Every “simple” task has layers – and every layer hides clues.
Without data, a bad decision can look pretty good in the moment, until it isn’t.
So the next time someone says, “I’ve got a good feeling about this,” maybe double-check that with a dashboard, a dataset, or – at the very least – a bar chart.
Because there’s one more thing intuition can’t do: hold up under audit.
Coming up next in the final chapter of our data acumen detective series: “Beyond the Numbers: tools, teams and the future of DLA Aviation data.” The cases get bigger, the tools get smarter and – the data? It starts doing the talking.